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Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2025-05-07 Origin: Site
Surprise! In April, 90,000 heavy trucks were sold, up 9%! Gas trucks have dropped further, while electric trucks have increased by over 12,000 yuan | Guangyao Car Review
What achievements did the heavy truck industry make in the first month after the release of the policy for exchanging old vehicles for new ones in April 2025? Will it reverse the decline in March in one fell swoop and achieve a year-on-year increase, or will it continue to decline? Has the policy of expanding the scope of truck scrapping and renewal started to play its stimulating role? How do electric heavy-duty trucks and gas trucks perform respectively?
Monthly Sales Trend Chart of China's Heavy Truck Market from 2019 to 2025 (Unit: Vehicles)
In April, 90,000 heavy-duty trucks were sold, achieving a year-on-year increase
Looking forward, looking forward... The heavy truck market in April 2025 finally achieved year-on-year growth.
According to the preliminary data obtained by the First Commercial Vehicle Network, in April 2025, China's heavy truck market sold approximately 90,000 units (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy vehicles), a 19% decrease compared to March this year and an increase of about 9.4% compared to 82,300 units in the same period last year.
Looking at 90,000 units over the past eight years, it is higher than the sales volume of the last three years from 2022 to April 2024, but slightly lower than the sales volume in April of other years, which is at the average level. In total, from January to April this year, the cumulative sales volume of heavy trucks in China was approximately 355,000 units, achieving a year-on-year flat growth.
The development of the heavy truck industry in April this year presented several characteristics. Firstly, the wholesale sales volume of heavy trucks in April increased year-on-year, mainly due to the growth in domestic wholesale sales volume (the base in the same period last year was relatively low). However, it should be noted that the domestic terminal sales, except for electric cards, have not shown a significant improvement. The prosperity of the road freight market during the traditional peak season fell short of expectations. The "new normal" that has long plagued the freight market, such as an overabundance of vehicles and a shortage of goods, and low freight rates, did not improve in April, and the supply of goods in some areas became even more scarce. From the perspective of the terminal situation, the domestic retail sales of heavy trucks (terminal sales) in April this year are expected to decline slightly by 1-2% year-on-year and by more than 10% month-on-month. Especially for gas vehicles, there is a significant year-on-year decline. The overall performance is not ideal.
Annual Sales Trend Chart of China's Heavy Truck Industry from 2015 to 2025 (Unit: Ten thousand units)
Secondly, the stimulating effect of the policy of trading in old vehicles for new ones that meet the National IV emission standards has not yet been fully demonstrated. On March 18th of this year, three ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on Implementing the Scrapping and Renewal of Old Commercial Trucks" (that is, the policy of exchanging old trucks for new ones), clearly supporting the renewal of commercial trucks that meet the National III and National IV emission standards. For the early scrapping of old commercial trucks, the early scrapping and renewal purchase of trucks that meet the National VI emission standards or new energy trucks, and only the purchase of new energy trucks that meet the conditions, Differentiated subsidy standards are implemented based on the type of scrapped vehicles, the time of early scrapping, and the power type of newly purchased vehicles, etc. Compared with the 2024 version of the old commercial truck scrapping and renewal policy, the most significant change in the 2025 version of the truck trade-in policy is that the word "diesel" has been removed from the scope of scrapped and updated trucks, and natural gas medium and heavy-duty trucks have been included in the subsidy scope. However, as of now, the detailed rules for the trade-in of old trucks in most provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions are still in the process of implementation, and their promoting effect on the demand for heavy trucks is not yet obvious.
Thirdly, after achieving a significant increase in the export sales volume of heavy trucks in March, the wholesale export sales volume of heavy trucks showed a slight year-on-year decline in April, and there is certain pressure in the second quarter
Natural gas heavy-duty trucks are expected to decline further, while electric heavy-duty trucks are projected to be between 1
2,500 and 13,000 units
In fact, according to the observation of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, the domestic terminal sales volume in April this year was quite similar to that in March, that is, the overall sales volume slightly declined year-on-year. The gas heavy-duty trucks, which have attracted much attention, continued to decline year-on-year, while the electric heavy-duty trucks continued to make rapid progress, and the domestic penetration rate basically remained at around 20%.
Let's take a look at the gas vehicle first. In April, the demand for gas vehicles remained weak, with monthly sales dropping below 20,000 units, expected to be similar to the level in February. The domestic penetration rate also dropped from 30% in March to below 27%. There are multiple reasons for this, including the decline in oil prices, the low freight rates in the road freight market, the poor profitability of vehicle operation units and individuals, as well as users' wait-and-see attitude towards the policy of trading in old trucks for new ones (many regions have not yet truly implemented it). The author predicts that the terminal sales volume of natural gas heavy-duty trucks in April will decline by more than 35% year-on-year and by more than 21% month-on-month, with a penetration rate of around 26% to 27%. This is another setback for the natural gas heavy-duty truck market after its "three consecutive rises" came to an abrupt halt in March.
Look at the electric vehicle again. Just like last year, electric heavy-duty trucks have continued to be favored since the beginning of this year. With extremely low usage costs and high expected returns, they have been selling well in medium and short-distance freight markets such as coal, steel, sand and gravel, cement, construction waste, mixing, and ports. Moreover, some large-capacity models have already been applied to medium-distance logistics scenarios with longer mileage. The First Commercial Vehicle Network predicts that the terminal sales of new energy heavy-duty trucks in April will exceed 12,000 units (expected to be between 12,500 and 13,000 units), with a year-on-year growth of more than 1.7 times, setting a new record for sales in this sub-sector in April. The industry penetration rate is around 20%.
Conclusion: When will the effect of policy stimulus be manifested?
In April, the wholesale sales volume of the heavy truck industry achieved a year-on-year increase, which was no easy feat. However, both the domestic terminal sales volume and the sales volume of the gas vehicle sub-market declined to varying degrees. When will the policy of trading in old trucks for new ones show a positive stimulating effect?
Given the current sluggishness of the freight market and the relatively slow implementation of local policies for scrapping and upgrading old commercial trucks, it is expected that the domestic heavy truck terminal market will not see a significant improvement until June. The natural gas heavy truck sub-sector is also likely to return to year-on-year growth only after June.