Views: 0 Author: Site Editor Publish Time: 2024-08-12 Origin: Site
In the first half of 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market has gone through a trend of increasing decreasing increasing decreasing increasing decreasing increasing increasing decreasing repeatedly, although it has not experienced a "continuous increase", it has also not encountered a "continuous decrease".
In the first month of the second half of the year, the heavy truck market experienced its first consecutive decline since 2024.
In July, 58300 heavy-duty trucks were sold, experiencing consecutive month on month and year-on-year declines
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) (based on the number of invoices issued by enterprises and non terminal actual sales), in July 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 232400 vehicles, a decrease of 21% compared to June this year and a year-on-year decline of 6%. Among them, the heavy-duty truck market (including chassis and tractor) sold 58300 units, a decrease of 18% compared to June and 5% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline narrowed compared to the previous month (-17%), and in line with the overall trend of the truck market, the heavy-duty truck market also achieved a double decline in both month on month and year-on-year performance in July. It is worth mentioning that the heavy-duty truck market has experienced "two consecutive declines" year-on-year, and has been declining for four consecutive months on a month on month basis. Monthly sales have dropped from over 110000 units in March to less than 60000 units in July, showing signs of market fatigue.
Looking at the sales volume and growth trend chart of the heavy-duty truck market in July of the past five years, it can be seen that only two years of growth have been achieved in the heavy-duty truck market in July of the past five years. Among them, in July 2020, there was a significant increase of 84%, with sales reaching 139300 units, which was the highest sales volume in July of the past five years; Subsequently, the heavy truck market experienced a decline for two consecutive years in July, with sales dropping to less than 50000 units in July 2022 after a significant drop of 41%; In July 2023, the heavy-duty truck market grew by 36% year-on-year, but only slightly over 60000 units were sold (less than half of the sales in July 2020); In July 2024, facing relatively low sales during the same period, the heavy-duty truck market decreased by 5% year-on-year. The sales volume of 58300 vehicles ranked second to last in the past five years, which is only a little over 40% of the sales volume in July 2020. Even if the timeline is extended to the past eight years, this is still the lowest level.
From January to July 2024, the heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 562800 vehicles, which is considered at a moderate level in the past five years (but with a significant gap compared to the cumulative sales in 2020 and January to July 2021, only half of the sales in January to July 2021). This is only a small increase of 2% compared to the same period last year, with a net growth of about 13000 vehicles. The cumulative sales growth rate is narrowing month by month (as shown in the above figure). In terms of monthly sales, the heavy truck market in July sold 58300 vehicles, ranking last in the first seven months of this year. This level can only rank 10th in 2023 (sales in March and April this year can rank 1st and 5th respectively in 2023, sales in May can also rank 6th, and sales in June can rank 8th). From various perspectives, the performance of the heavy truck market in the first month of the second half of this year was not good, with only a cumulative growth rate of 2%. The pressure on the heavy truck market will be very high in the coming months.
Three companies' sales have exceeded 10000, with Liberation/Shaanxi Automobile/XCMG/Yutong experiencing a reverse increase
Market Sales Table of Heavy duty Trucks (including Chassis and Tractors) in July 2024 (Unit: Vehicles)
As shown in the table above, the heavy-duty truck market in July 2024 decreased by 5% year-on-year, with approximately 3000 units sold less than in July of last year. In July, only three companies in the heavy-duty truck market sold over 10000 vehicles, a decrease of one company from the previous month. Three companies, Heavy Duty Truck Group, Shaanxi Automobile Group, and Liberation Automobile Group, sold 16000, 11100, and 10600 vehicles respectively. In July, the total share of the top ten companies in the heavy-duty truck market reached 96.05%, and the total share of the top five companies in the industry reached 86.14%. Among them, the top four companies, Heavy Duty Truck, Shaanxi Automobile, Liberation, and Dongfeng, all had monthly shares of over 10%, reaching 27.45%, 19.06%, 18.15%, and 13.08% respectively. Foton, ranked fifth on the monthly list, had a share of 8.39% in July. In the first seven months of 2024, the total shares of the top five companies in the heavy-duty truck industry were 91.92%, 89.51%, 89.78%, 87.66%, 87.42%, 85.86%, and 86.14%, respectively. The top five companies in the industry performed very strongly in 2024, but their total shares have significantly narrowed since the second quarter.
In terms of growth rate, the top ten companies in the heavy-duty truck market saw 4 increases and 6 decreases in sales in July: Shaanxi Automobile, Liberation, XCMG, and Yutong increased by 5%, 26%, 25%, and 444% year-on-year, respectively. Among them, Yutong has achieved "7 consecutive increases" in 2024; Dongfeng, Dayun, Beiben and other companies have all experienced small single digit declines, with Dayun and Beiben experiencing a year-on-year decline lower than the overall market decline of 5%. Although they have experienced a decline, they outperform the heavy truck market; At the same time, three companies experienced a double-digit year-on-year decline, with the most severely affected company experiencing a 38% year-on-year decrease.
From the perspective of industry structure, the top ten members of the heavy-duty truck market in July 2024 are different from the previous month, and their rankings have also undergone significant changes: Yutong, which ranked 11th on the monthly list in June, entered the top ten, and in July, it ranked 9th on the monthly list, rising two places in ranking; Liberation, which ranked fourth in June, rose one place to third place on the monthly list in July; Jianghuai, which ranked 10th on the monthly chart in June, rose two places to 8th on the monthly chart in July. At the same time, more than one company has experienced a decline in ranking, and even been squeezed out of the top ten of the monthly list.
The cumulative sales growth rate continues to narrow, while the shares of companies such as Liberation, Dongfeng, and Heavy Duty Truck have increased
In terms of cumulative sales, from January to July 2024, China's heavy-duty truck market sold a total of 562800 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 2%. The cumulative growth rate narrowed by 1 percentage point compared to after June (+3%), and about 13000 vehicles were sold more than the same period last year, which is about 1.02 times the sales volume of the same period last year.
Looking specifically at the top ten companies in terms of cumulative sales (slightly different from the top ten in July), there were 7 increases and 3 decreases, with most companies in the upward range. Among them, the cumulative sales growth of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group, Liberation, Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile Group, Dayun, XCMG, and Beiben exceeded the overall market growth rate. After July, the cumulative sales of the above seven companies increased by 4%, 6%, 5%, 3%, 4%, 9%, and 9% year-on-year, respectively. At the same time, two of the three declining companies experienced a double-digit decline in cumulative sales from January to July, with SAIC Hongyan's cumulative sales from January to July slightly lower than the same period last year. It is worth mentioning that in the increase of 13000 vehicles in the heavy-duty truck market from January to July this year, Jiefang, Heavy Duty Truck and Dongfeng contributed the most, contributing more than 6800 vehicles, 5500 vehicles and 4400 vehicles respectively.
From the perspective of cumulative market share, the top ten companies in terms of sales have a total share of 96.87%, while the top five companies in the industry have a total share of 88.57% (a slight decrease from 88.85% from January to June). Among them, the top two companies, Heavy Duty Truck and Liberation, both have a cumulative share of over 20%. The two giants collectively shared nearly half of the heavy truck market share from January to July this year (48.4%, which has also narrowed compared to previous months); The market share of enterprises after 5 is less than 3%, and the market share of enterprises after 6 is less than 2%.
From January to July 2024, the top ten members of the heavy-duty truck market remained consistent with the top ten members at the end of last year, with some changes in ranking. Dongfeng rose from fourth place at the end of last year to third place in the industry, and XCMG rose from eighth place at the end of last year to seventh place in the industry. Compared with the same period last year, the market share of enterprises such as Liberation, Dongfeng, and Heavy Duty Truck has increased. The cumulative market share of these three enterprises from January to July this year has increased by 0.76 percentage points, 0.42 percentage points, and 0.37 percentage points respectively compared to the same period last year. The market share of Shaanxi Automobile, Dayun, XCMG, Yutong, and Beiben has also slightly increased compared to the same period last year, while the market share of other enterprises has declined to varying degrees compared to the same period last year.
In July 2024, the heavy-duty truck market delivered a sales record of 58300 units, a decrease of 18% month on month and 5% year-on-year; From January to July this year, the heavy truck market experienced 3 increases and 4 decreases, with a cumulative sales growth of only 2% after July. Whether it is a 5% year-on-year decline in July or a cumulative growth of only 2% from January to July, it makes people less optimistic about the prospects of the heavy truck market. In August, it is still the off-season in the heavy truck industry, and market expectations are generally not too high. On July 31st, the Ministry of Transport and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on the implementation of scrapping and updating old operating trucks, providing financial subsidies for scrapping and updating old operating trucks.